Target Price Playground
UNH
$304.33
๐ข
UNH IV: 35.4% โ LOW
(-39.0% vs 30d avg of 58.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $335 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $304.33 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $290 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.1 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If UNH hits $335 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$2,057 (6.5%) on $31,443 risked, vs +$3,067 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $30,433. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if UNH is at $335. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if UNH hits $335 by Jun 19
+$2,057
+6.5% on $31,443 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,443
Put floors you at $290
Break-even
$314.43
+3.32% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
51%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.27 / -11.45 / 49.46
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| UNH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $243 (-20%) | -$2,405 | -$2,472 | -$2,501 | -$2,443 |
| $259 (-15%) | -$2,089 | -$2,246 | -$2,403 | -$2,443 |
| $274 (-10%) | -$1,582 | -$1,816 | -$2,110 | -$2,443 |
| $289 (-5%) | -$861 | -$1,135 | -$1,503 | -$2,443 |
| $298 (-2%) | -$328 | -$604 | -$968 | -$1,619 |
| $304 (0%) โ spot | +$67 | -$202 | -$546 | -$1,010 |
| $310 (+2%) | +$491 | +$235 | -$79 | -$401 |
| $320 (+5%) | +$1,175 | +$946 | +$689 | +$512 |
| $335 (+10%) โ target | +$2,445 | +$2,272 | +$2,114 | +$2,057 |
| $350 (+15%) | +$3,777 | +$3,657 | +$3,571 | +$3,555 |
| $365 (+20%) | +$5,198 | +$5,122 | +$5,081 | +$5,077 |
Uses UNH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.