Target Price Playground
UNH
$304.33
๐ข
UNH IV: 35.4% โ LOW
(-39.0% vs 30d avg of 58.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $330 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $304.33 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $330 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.8 ยท ฮ 0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If UNH hits $330 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$3,347 (11.3%) on $29,653 risked, vs +$2,567 (8.4%) for 100 shares on $30,433. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if UNH is at $330. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if UNH hits $330 by Jun 19
+$3,347
+11.3% on $29,653 risked
Max Profit
+$3,347
If the stock โฅ $330 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$29,653
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$296.53
-2.56% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
69.15 / 11.27 / -47.84
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| UNH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $243 (-20%) | -$5,349 | -$5,317 | -$5,307 | -$5,307 |
| $259 (-15%) | -$3,900 | -$3,824 | -$3,788 | -$3,785 |
| $274 (-10%) | -$2,532 | -$2,384 | -$2,282 | -$2,263 |
| $289 (-5%) | -$1,286 | -$1,050 | -$831 | -$742 |
| $298 (-2%) | -$612 | -$322 | -$18 | +$171 |
| $304 (0%) โ spot | -$197 | +$124 | +$486 | +$780 |
| $310 (+2%) | +$188 | +$538 | +$952 | +$1,389 |
| $320 (+5%) | +$708 | +$1,090 | +$1,566 | +$2,302 |
| $330 (+8%) โ target | +$1,220 | +$1,622 | +$2,131 | +$3,347 |
| $335 (+10%) | +$1,425 | +$1,829 | +$2,339 | +$3,347 |
| $350 (+15%) | +$1,965 | +$2,353 | +$2,817 | +$3,347 |
| $365 (+20%) | +$2,355 | +$2,699 | +$3,070 | +$3,347 |
Uses UNH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.