Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VIAV hits $37 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$710 (229.0%) on $-310 credit (max loss $0), vs $-479 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $4,179. Options give 19.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VIAV is at $37. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VIAV Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $33 (-20%) | +$606 | +$617 | +$640 | +$710 |
| $36 (-15%) | +$582 | +$590 | +$607 | +$710 |
| $37 (-11%) โ target | +$566 | +$570 | +$580 | +$710 |
| $38 (-10%) | +$559 | +$561 | +$569 | +$710 |
| $40 (-5%) | +$535 | +$532 | +$529 | +$540 |
| $41 (-2%) | +$522 | +$516 | +$505 | +$415 |
| $42 (0%) โ spot | +$513 | +$504 | +$490 | +$331 |
| $43 (+2%) | +$504 | +$494 | +$475 | +$310 |
| $44 (+5%) | +$491 | +$478 | +$454 | +$310 |
| $46 (+10%) | +$470 | +$454 | +$422 | +$310 |
| $48 (+15%) | +$451 | +$431 | +$395 | +$310 |
| $50 (+20%) | +$434 | +$412 | +$373 | +$310 |