Target Price Playground
VIAV
$41.79
๐ข
VIAV IV: 72.9% โ LOW
(-24.3% vs 30d avg of 96.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $45 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $41.79 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $45 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.72 ยท ฮ 0.51
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VIAV hits $45 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$893 (24.8%) on $3,607 risked, vs +$321 (7.7%) for 100 shares on $4,179. Options give 3.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VIAV is at $45. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VIAV hits $45 by Jun 19
+$893
+24.8% on $3,607 risked
Max Profit
+$893
If the stock โฅ $45 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$3,607
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$36.07
-13.69% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
48.78 / 4.81 / -7.35
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VIAV Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $33 (-20%) | -$420 | -$355 | -$292 | -$264 |
| $36 (-15%) | -$272 | -$193 | -$108 | -$55 |
| $38 (-10%) | -$136 | -$44 | +$62 | +$154 |
| $40 (-5%) | -$12 | +$90 | +$215 | +$363 |
| $41 (-2%) | +$56 | +$163 | +$297 | +$488 |
| $42 (0%) โ spot | +$99 | +$210 | +$349 | +$572 |
| $43 (+2%) | +$141 | +$253 | +$397 | +$656 |
| $44 (+5%) | +$199 | +$315 | +$464 | +$781 |
| $45 (+8%) โ target | +$248 | +$365 | +$517 | +$893 |
| $46 (+10%) | +$287 | +$406 | +$559 | +$893 |
| $48 (+15%) | +$365 | +$485 | +$637 | +$893 |
| $50 (+20%) | +$434 | +$552 | +$698 | +$893 |
Uses VIAV's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.