Target Price Playground
VIAV
$41.79
๐ข
VIAV IV: 72.9% โ LOW
(-24.3% vs 30d avg of 96.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $40 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $42 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.78 ยท ฮ -0.41
SHORT PUT ยท $40 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.94 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VIAV hits $40 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$287 (155.8%) on $184 risked, vs $-179 (-4.3%) for 100 shares on $4,179. Options give 36.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VIAV is at $40. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VIAV hits $40 by Jun 19
+$287
+155.8% on $184 risked
Max Profit
+$283
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$116
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$47.47
+13.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
90%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-4.13 / 0.87 / 1.39
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VIAV Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $33 (-20%) | +$41 | +$55 | +$76 | +$74 |
| $36 (-15%) | +$40 | +$57 | +$86 | +$122 |
| $38 (-10%) | +$37 | +$55 | +$89 | +$188 |
| $40 (-4%) โ target | +$31 | +$49 | +$84 | +$287 |
| $41 (-2%) | +$27 | +$46 | +$80 | +$238 |
| $42 (0%) โ spot | +$24 | +$42 | +$74 | +$198 |
| $43 (+2%) | +$21 | +$38 | +$68 | +$162 |
| $44 (+5%) | +$16 | +$31 | +$58 | +$112 |
| $46 (+10%) | +$6 | +$18 | +$37 | +$42 |
| $48 (+15%) | -$5 | +$4 | +$14 | -$14 |
| $50 (+20%) | -$16 | -$11 | -$9 | -$58 |
Uses VIAV's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.