Target Price Playground
VIAV
$41.79
๐ข
VIAV IV: 72.9% โ LOW
(-24.3% vs 30d avg of 96.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $37 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $42 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.81 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VIAV hits $37 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-81 (-13.9%) on $581 risked, vs $-479 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $4,179. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VIAV is at $37. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VIAV hits $37 by Jun 19
$-81
-13.9% on $581 risked
Max Profit
+$3,619
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$581
Premium paid
Break-even
$36.19
-13.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-42.17 / -4.3 / 7.09
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VIAV Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $33 (-20%) | +$453 | +$388 | +$318 | +$276 |
| $36 (-15%) | +$319 | +$242 | +$151 | +$67 |
| $37 (-11%) โ target | +$232 | +$148 | +$44 | -$81 |
| $38 (-10%) | +$198 | +$112 | +$2 | -$142 |
| $40 (-5%) | +$91 | -$3 | -$125 | -$351 |
| $41 (-2%) | +$32 | -$64 | -$192 | -$476 |
| $42 (0%) โ spot | -$4 | -$103 | -$233 | -$560 |
| $43 (+2%) | -$39 | -$139 | -$270 | -$581 |
| $44 (+5%) | -$88 | -$188 | -$320 | -$581 |
| $46 (+10%) | -$161 | -$260 | -$388 | -$581 |
| $48 (+15%) | -$224 | -$321 | -$441 | -$581 |
| $50 (+20%) | -$278 | -$371 | -$481 | -$581 |
Uses VIAV's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.