Target Price Playground
VIAV
$41.79
๐ข
VIAV IV: 72.9% โ LOW
(-24.3% vs 30d avg of 96.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $46 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $41.79 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $40 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.94 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VIAV hits $46 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-73 (-1.6%) on $4,673 risked, vs +$421 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $4,179. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VIAV is at $46. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VIAV hits $46 by Jun 19
$-73
-1.6% on $4,673 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$673
Put floors you at $40
Break-even
$46.73
+11.82% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.06 / -4.16 / 6.9
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VIAV Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $33 (-20%) | -$448 | -$519 | -$603 | -$673 |
| $36 (-15%) | -$362 | -$443 | -$545 | -$673 |
| $38 (-10%) | -$263 | -$351 | -$467 | -$673 |
| $40 (-5%) | -$150 | -$243 | -$366 | -$673 |
| $41 (-2%) | -$76 | -$171 | -$296 | -$578 |
| $42 (0%) โ spot | -$24 | -$120 | -$245 | -$494 |
| $43 (+2%) | +$29 | -$66 | -$191 | -$410 |
| $44 (+5%) | +$112 | +$17 | -$104 | -$285 |
| $46 (+10%) โ target | +$261 | +$169 | +$55 | -$73 |
| $48 (+15%) | +$414 | +$326 | +$223 | +$133 |
| $50 (+20%) | +$578 | +$495 | +$404 | +$342 |
Uses VIAV's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.