Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRNS hits $18 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$168 (939.2%) on $-18 credit (max loss $0), vs $-219 (-10.8%) for 100 shares on $2,019. Options give 87.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRNS is at $18. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRNS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | +$130 | +$134 | +$144 | +$168 |
| $17 (-15%) | +$120 | +$123 | +$130 | +$168 |
| $18 (-11%) โ target | +$112 | +$114 | +$118 | +$168 |
| $19 (-5%) | +$101 | +$100 | +$99 | +$100 |
| $20 (-2%) | +$95 | +$93 | +$89 | +$39 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | +$92 | +$89 | +$83 | +$18 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$88 | +$84 | +$77 | +$18 |
| $21 (+5%) | +$83 | +$78 | +$68 | +$18 |
| $22 (+10%) | +$75 | +$68 | +$56 | +$18 |
| $23 (+15%) | +$67 | +$60 | +$46 | +$18 |
| $24 (+20%) | +$60 | +$52 | +$38 | +$18 |