Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRNS hits $21 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$168 (10.0%) on $-168 credit (max loss $1,682), vs +$81 (4.0%) for 100 shares on $2,019. Options give 2.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRNS is at $21. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRNS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | -$182 | -$149 | -$109 | -$67 |
| $17 (-15%) | -$126 | -$89 | -$41 | +$34 |
| $18 (-10%) | -$77 | -$38 | +$14 | +$135 |
| $19 (-5%) | -$35 | +$5 | +$59 | +$168 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$13 | +$27 | +$80 | +$168 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$40 | +$92 | +$168 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$13 | +$53 | +$103 | +$168 |
| $21 (+4%) โ target | +$25 | +$64 | +$112 | +$168 |
| $22 (+10%) | +$55 | +$92 | +$134 | +$168 |
| $23 (+15%) | +$76 | +$110 | +$146 | +$168 |
| $24 (+20%) | +$93 | +$124 | +$154 | +$168 |