Target Price Playground
VRNS
$20.19
๐ข
VRNS IV: 62.2% โ LOW
(-36.5% vs 30d avg of 97.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $19 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $20 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.87 ยท ฮ -0.4
SHORT PUT ยท $19 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.91 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRNS hits $19 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$118 (123.5%) on $96 risked, vs $-119 (-5.9%) for 100 shares on $2,019. Options give 20.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRNS is at $19. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRNS hits $19 by Jun 19
+$118
+123.5% on $96 risked
Max Profit
+$117
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$74
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$21.85
+8.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
86%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-4.79 / 0.25 / 0.77
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRNS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | +$11 | +$18 | +$28 | +$29 |
| $17 (-15%) | +$10 | +$18 | +$32 | +$52 |
| $18 (-10%) | +$8 | +$16 | +$31 | +$84 |
| $19 (-6%) โ target | +$5 | +$13 | +$29 | +$118 |
| $20 (-2%) | +$2 | +$9 | +$24 | +$78 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$7 | +$20 | +$60 |
| $21 (+2%) | -$2 | +$4 | +$17 | +$43 |
| $21 (+5%) | -$5 | +$0 | +$10 | +$20 |
| $22 (+10%) | -$11 | -$7 | -$1 | -$10 |
| $23 (+15%) | -$17 | -$15 | -$14 | -$34 |
| $24 (+20%) | -$23 | -$23 | -$26 | -$52 |
Uses VRNS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.