Target Price Playground
VRNS
$20.19
๐ข
VRNS IV: 62.2% โ LOW
(-36.5% vs 30d avg of 97.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $23 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $20 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.0 ยท ฮ 0.58
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRNS hits $23 by Jun 19: the long call returns $-50 (-16.7%) on $300 risked, vs +$231 (11.4%) for 100 shares on $2,019. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRNS is at $23. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRNS hits $23 by Jun 19
$-50
-16.7% on $300 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$300
Premium paid
Break-even
$23.00
+13.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
58.11 / -2.17 / 3.38
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRNS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | -$207 | -$241 | -$277 | -$300 |
| $17 (-15%) | -$171 | -$211 | -$257 | -$300 |
| $18 (-10%) | -$129 | -$172 | -$227 | -$300 |
| $19 (-5%) | -$79 | -$126 | -$186 | -$300 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$46 | -$94 | -$156 | -$300 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | -$23 | -$72 | -$135 | -$281 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$1 | -$48 | -$111 | -$241 |
| $21 (+5%) | +$39 | -$10 | -$73 | -$180 |
| $22 (+10%) | +$107 | +$58 | -$2 | -$79 |
| $23 (+11%) โ target | +$127 | +$79 | +$20 | -$50 |
| $23 (+15%) | +$179 | +$133 | +$77 | +$22 |
| $24 (+20%) | +$256 | +$212 | +$162 | +$123 |
Uses VRNS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.