Target Price Playground
VRNS
$20.19
๐ข
VRNS IV: 62.2% โ LOW
(-36.5% vs 30d avg of 97.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $18 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $20 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.5 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRNS hits $18 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$50 (33.3%) on $150 risked, vs $-219 (-10.8%) for 100 shares on $2,019. Options give 3.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRNS is at $18. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRNS hits $18 by Jun 19
+$50
+33.3% on $150 risked
Max Profit
+$1,850
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$150
Premium paid
Break-even
$18.50
-8.37% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-42.61 / -1.83 / 3.39
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRNS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | +$311 | +$283 | +$253 | +$235 |
| $17 (-15%) | +$246 | +$212 | +$172 | +$134 |
| $18 (-11%) โ target | +$197 | +$160 | +$112 | +$50 |
| $19 (-5%) | +$137 | +$95 | +$40 | -$68 |
| $20 (-2%) | +$109 | +$66 | +$9 | -$129 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | +$92 | +$48 | -$9 | -$150 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$76 | +$32 | -$26 | -$150 |
| $21 (+5%) | +$53 | +$9 | -$48 | -$150 |
| $22 (+10%) | +$19 | -$24 | -$78 | -$150 |
| $23 (+15%) | -$9 | -$50 | -$100 | -$150 |
| $24 (+20%) | -$33 | -$72 | -$116 | -$150 |
Uses VRNS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.