Target Price Playground
VRNS
$20.19
๐ข
VRNS IV: 62.2% โ LOW
(-36.5% vs 30d avg of 97.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $22 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $20.19 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $19 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.91 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRNS hits $22 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-10 (-0.4%) on $2,210 risked, vs +$181 (9.0%) for 100 shares on $2,019.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRNS is at $22. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRNS hits $22 by Jun 19
$-10
-0.4% on $2,210 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$310
Put floors you at $19
Break-even
$22.10
+9.46% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.61 / -1.71 / 3.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRNS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | -$209 | -$241 | -$278 | -$310 |
| $17 (-15%) | -$167 | -$204 | -$249 | -$310 |
| $18 (-10%) | -$118 | -$158 | -$210 | -$310 |
| $19 (-5%) | -$62 | -$104 | -$158 | -$292 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$25 | -$67 | -$122 | -$231 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$42 | -$96 | -$191 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$26 | -$15 | -$69 | -$151 |
| $21 (+5%) | +$68 | +$27 | -$24 | -$90 |
| $22 (+9%) โ target | +$125 | +$86 | +$38 | -$10 |
| $22 (+10%) | +$141 | +$102 | +$55 | +$11 |
| $23 (+15%) | +$219 | +$182 | +$141 | +$112 |
| $24 (+20%) | +$300 | +$267 | +$232 | +$213 |
Uses VRNS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.