Target Price Playground
VRNS
$20.19
๐ข
VRNS IV: 62.2% โ LOW
(-36.5% vs 30d avg of 97.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $23 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $20 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.0 ยท ฮ 0.58
LONG PUT ยท $20 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.5 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRNS hits $23 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-150 (-33.3%) on $450 risked, vs +$281 (13.9%) for 100 shares on $2,019. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRNS is at $23. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRNS hits $23 by Jun 19
$-150
-33.3% on $450 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$450
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$24.50
+21.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
15.5 / -4.01 / 6.77
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRNS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | +$104 | +$43 | -$24 | -$65 |
| $17 (-15%) | +$75 | +$2 | -$85 | -$166 |
| $18 (-10%) | +$59 | -$23 | -$126 | -$267 |
| $19 (-5%) | +$58 | -$31 | -$146 | -$368 |
| $20 (-2%) | +$63 | -$28 | -$148 | -$429 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | +$69 | -$24 | -$144 | -$431 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$77 | -$16 | -$137 | -$391 |
| $21 (+5%) | +$92 | -$1 | -$121 | -$330 |
| $22 (+10%) | +$126 | +$35 | -$80 | -$229 |
| $23 (+14%) โ target | +$160 | +$71 | -$37 | -$150 |
| $23 (+15%) | +$170 | +$82 | -$23 | -$128 |
| $24 (+20%) | +$223 | +$140 | +$46 | -$27 |
Uses VRNS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.