Target Price Playground
VRNS
$20.19
๐ข
VRNS IV: 62.2% โ LOW
(-36.5% vs 30d avg of 97.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $22 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $20.19 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $22 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.98 ยท ฮ 0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRNS hits $22 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$379 (20.8%) on $1,821 risked, vs +$181 (9.0%) for 100 shares on $2,019. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRNS is at $22. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRNS hits $22 by Jun 19
+$379
+20.8% on $1,821 risked
Max Profit
+$379
If the stock โฅ $22 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,821
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$18.21
-9.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
53.0 / 2.05 / -3.44
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRNS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | -$264 | -$238 | -$214 | -$206 |
| $17 (-15%) | -$189 | -$156 | -$122 | -$105 |
| $18 (-10%) | -$120 | -$80 | -$36 | -$4 |
| $19 (-5%) | -$57 | -$12 | +$42 | +$97 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$22 | +$26 | +$84 | +$158 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$49 | +$110 | +$198 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$21 | +$71 | +$135 | +$238 |
| $21 (+5%) | +$50 | +$103 | +$169 | +$299 |
| $22 (+9%) โ target | +$86 | +$140 | +$209 | +$379 |
| $22 (+10%) | +$95 | +$149 | +$218 | +$379 |
| $23 (+15%) | +$134 | +$188 | +$258 | +$379 |
| $24 (+20%) | +$168 | +$222 | +$289 | +$379 |
Uses VRNS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.