Target Price Playground
VRTX
$436.27
๐ข
VRTX IV: 32.5% โ LOW
(-51.7% vs 30d avg of 67.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $490 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $435 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.24 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $470 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.7 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $490 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,946 (125.3%) on $1,554 risked, vs +$5,373 (12.3%) for 100 shares on $43,627. Options give 10.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $490. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $490 by Jun 19
+$1,946
+125.3% on $1,554 risked
Max Profit
+$1,946
If the stock โฅ $470 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,554
Net debit
Break-even
$450.54
+3.27% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
22.72 / -4.24 / 5.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $349 (-20%) | -$1,431 | -$1,504 | -$1,549 | -$1,554 |
| $371 (-15%) | -$1,267 | -$1,391 | -$1,517 | -$1,554 |
| $393 (-10%) | -$996 | -$1,152 | -$1,378 | -$1,554 |
| $414 (-5%) | -$623 | -$760 | -$1,014 | -$1,554 |
| $428 (-2%) | -$363 | -$461 | -$664 | -$1,554 |
| $436 (0%) โ spot | -$180 | -$244 | -$384 | -$1,427 |
| $445 (+2%) | +$6 | -$20 | -$82 | -$554 |
| $458 (+5%) | +$282 | +$316 | +$380 | +$754 |
| $480 (+10%) | +$714 | +$832 | +$1,061 | +$1,946 |
| $490 (+12%) โ target | +$892 | +$1,038 | +$1,305 | +$1,946 |
| $502 (+15%) | +$1,079 | +$1,244 | +$1,524 | +$1,946 |
| $524 (+20%) | +$1,362 | +$1,535 | +$1,773 | +$1,946 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.