Target Price Playground
VRTX
$443.25
๐ข
VRTX IV: 32.5% โ LOW
(-51.7% vs 30d avg of 67.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $390 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $445 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $24.12 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $410 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.3 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $390 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$2,118 (153.3%) on $1,382 risked, vs $-5,325 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $44,325. Options give 12.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $390 by Jun 19
+$2,118
+153.3% on $1,382 risked
Max Profit
+$2,118
If the stock โค $410 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,382
Net debit
Break-even
$431.18
-2.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-16.72 / 0.08 / 13.92
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $355 (-20%) | +$1,758 | +$1,900 | +$2,055 | +$2,118 |
| $377 (-15%) | +$1,439 | +$1,604 | +$1,858 | +$2,118 |
| $390 (-12%) โ target | +$1,192 | +$1,341 | +$1,607 | +$2,118 |
| $399 (-10%) | +$1,007 | +$1,132 | +$1,371 | +$2,118 |
| $421 (-5%) | +$513 | +$545 | +$610 | +$1,009 |
| $434 (-2%) | +$215 | +$184 | +$114 | -$320 |
| $443 (0%) โ spot | +$24 | -$47 | -$197 | -$1,207 |
| $452 (+2%) | -$157 | -$262 | -$473 | -$1,382 |
| $465 (+5%) | -$405 | -$547 | -$808 | -$1,382 |
| $488 (+10%) | -$745 | -$908 | -$1,155 | -$1,382 |
| $510 (+15%) | -$989 | -$1,137 | -$1,308 | -$1,382 |
| $532 (+20%) | -$1,153 | -$1,265 | -$1,362 | -$1,382 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.