Target Price Playground
VRTX
$443.25
๐ข
VRTX IV: 32.5% โ LOW
(-51.7% vs 30d avg of 67.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $495 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $445 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.03 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $480 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.09 ยท ฮ 0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $495 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,806 (106.6%) on $1,694 risked, vs +$5,175 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $44,325. Options give 9.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $495. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $495 by Jun 19
+$1,806
+106.6% on $1,694 risked
Max Profit
+$1,806
If the stock โฅ $480 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,694
Net debit
Break-even
$461.94
+4.22% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
41%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
26.51 / -5.62 / 5.45
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $355 (-20%) | -$1,584 | -$1,651 | -$1,691 | -$1,694 |
| $377 (-15%) | -$1,432 | -$1,551 | -$1,664 | -$1,694 |
| $399 (-10%) | -$1,176 | -$1,330 | -$1,545 | -$1,694 |
| $421 (-5%) | -$814 | -$956 | -$1,216 | -$1,694 |
| $434 (-2%) | -$558 | -$666 | -$885 | -$1,694 |
| $443 (0%) โ spot | -$377 | -$452 | -$615 | -$1,694 |
| $452 (+2%) | -$191 | -$229 | -$318 | -$982 |
| $465 (+5%) | +$87 | +$108 | +$146 | +$347 |
| $488 (+10%) | +$524 | +$634 | +$849 | +$1,806 |
| $495 (+12%) โ target | +$658 | +$790 | +$1,040 | +$1,806 |
| $510 (+15%) | +$899 | +$1,061 | +$1,341 | +$1,806 |
| $532 (+20%) | +$1,193 | +$1,366 | +$1,612 | +$1,806 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.