Target Price Playground
VRTX
$443.25
๐ข
VRTX IV: 32.5% โ LOW
(-51.7% vs 30d avg of 67.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $480 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $443.25 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $480 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.09 ยท ฮ 0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $480 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$4,584 (10.6%) on $43,416 risked, vs +$3,675 (8.3%) for 100 shares on $44,325. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $480. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $480 by Jun 19
+$4,584
+10.6% on $43,416 risked
Max Profit
+$4,584
If the stock โฅ $480 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$43,416
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$434.16
-2.05% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
72.47 / 15.67 / -69.92
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $355 (-20%) | -$7,997 | -$7,964 | -$7,956 | -$7,956 |
| $377 (-15%) | -$5,865 | -$5,779 | -$5,742 | -$5,740 |
| $399 (-10%) | -$3,840 | -$3,659 | -$3,541 | -$3,523 |
| $421 (-5%) | -$1,990 | -$1,682 | -$1,407 | -$1,307 |
| $434 (-2%) | -$990 | -$604 | -$207 | +$22 |
| $443 (0%) โ spot | -$376 | +$58 | +$539 | +$909 |
| $452 (+2%) | +$192 | +$669 | +$1,228 | +$1,796 |
| $465 (+5%) | +$956 | +$1,481 | +$2,131 | +$3,125 |
| $480 (+8%) โ target | +$1,674 | +$2,225 | +$2,923 | +$4,584 |
| $488 (+10%) | +$1,997 | +$2,552 | +$3,251 | +$4,584 |
| $510 (+15%) | +$2,765 | +$3,292 | +$3,914 | +$4,584 |
| $532 (+20%) | +$3,301 | +$3,760 | +$4,243 | +$4,584 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.