Target Price Playground
VRTX
$443.25
๐ข
VRTX IV: 32.5% โ LOW
(-51.7% vs 30d avg of 67.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $495 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $445 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.03 ยท ฮ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $495 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$2,397 (92.1%) on $2,603 risked, vs +$5,175 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $44,325. Options give 7.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $495. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $495 by Jun 19
+$2,397
+92.1% on $2,603 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,603
Premium paid
Break-even
$471.03
+6.27% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
41%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.04 / -21.29 / 75.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $355 (-20%) | -$2,453 | -$2,552 | -$2,599 | -$2,603 |
| $377 (-15%) | -$2,216 | -$2,422 | -$2,571 | -$2,603 |
| $399 (-10%) | -$1,767 | -$2,103 | -$2,436 | -$2,603 |
| $421 (-5%) | -$1,040 | -$1,490 | -$2,024 | -$2,603 |
| $434 (-2%) | -$455 | -$948 | -$1,565 | -$2,603 |
| $443 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$510 | -$1,154 | -$2,603 |
| $452 (+2%) | +$504 | -$11 | -$659 | -$1,891 |
| $465 (+5%) | +$1,346 | +$843 | +$231 | -$562 |
| $488 (+10%) | +$2,960 | +$2,515 | +$2,031 | +$1,655 |
| $495 (+12%) โ target | +$3,550 | +$3,131 | +$2,696 | +$2,397 |
| $510 (+15%) | +$4,783 | +$4,419 | +$4,076 | +$3,871 |
| $532 (+20%) | +$6,757 | +$6,471 | +$6,234 | +$6,087 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.