Target Price Playground
VRTX
$443.25
๐ข
VRTX IV: 32.5% โ LOW
(-51.7% vs 30d avg of 67.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $390 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $445 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $24.12 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $390 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$3,088 (128.1%) on $2,412 risked, vs $-5,325 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $44,325. Options give 10.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $390 by Jun 19
+$3,088
+128.1% on $2,412 risked
Max Profit
+$42,088
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$2,412
Premium paid
Break-even
$420.88
-5.05% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.96 / -15.85 / 75.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $355 (-20%) | +$6,412 | +$6,433 | +$6,506 | +$6,628 |
| $377 (-15%) | +$4,433 | +$4,347 | +$4,318 | +$4,412 |
| $390 (-12%) โ target | +$3,346 | +$3,184 | +$3,052 | +$3,088 |
| $399 (-10%) | +$2,665 | +$2,448 | +$2,236 | +$2,195 |
| $421 (-5%) | +$1,176 | +$845 | +$432 | -$21 |
| $434 (-2%) | +$432 | +$58 | -$438 | -$1,350 |
| $443 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$390 | -$914 | -$2,237 |
| $452 (+2%) | -$384 | -$778 | -$1,306 | -$2,412 |
| $465 (+5%) | -$870 | -$1,253 | -$1,745 | -$2,412 |
| $488 (+10%) | -$1,473 | -$1,798 | -$2,162 | -$2,412 |
| $510 (+15%) | -$1,866 | -$2,111 | -$2,333 | -$2,412 |
| $532 (+20%) | -$2,108 | -$2,274 | -$2,391 | -$2,412 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.