Target Price Playground
VRTX
$443.25
๐ข
VRTX IV: 32.5% โ LOW
(-51.7% vs 30d avg of 67.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $495 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $443.25 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $495 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$5,175 (11.7%) on $44,325 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $495 by Jun 19
+$5,175
+11.7% on $44,325 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$44,325
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$443.25
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
41%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | May 13 | Jun 12 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $355 (-20%) | -$8,865 | -$8,865 | -$8,865 |
| $377 (-15%) | -$6,649 | -$6,649 | -$6,649 |
| $399 (-10%) | -$4,432 | -$4,432 | -$4,432 |
| $421 (-5%) | -$2,216 | -$2,216 | -$2,216 |
| $434 (-2%) | -$887 | -$887 | -$887 |
| $443 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $452 (+2%) | +$887 | +$887 | +$887 |
| $465 (+5%) | +$2,216 | +$2,216 | +$2,216 |
| $488 (+10%) | +$4,433 | +$4,433 | +$4,433 |
| $495 (+12%) โ target | +$5,175 | +$5,175 | +$5,175 |
| $510 (+15%) | +$6,649 | +$6,649 | +$6,649 |
| $532 (+20%) | +$8,865 | +$8,865 | +$8,865 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.