Target Price Playground
VRTX
$443.25
๐ข
VRTX IV: 32.5% โ LOW
(-51.7% vs 30d avg of 67.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $490 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $443.25 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $420 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.9 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $490 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$3,285 (7.2%) on $45,715 risked, vs +$4,675 (10.5%) for 100 shares on $44,325. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $490. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $490 by Jun 19
+$3,285
+7.2% on $45,715 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,715
Put floors you at $420
Break-even
$457.15
+3.14% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.71 / -17.52 / 71.39
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $355 (-20%) | -$3,710 | -$3,785 | -$3,807 | -$3,715 |
| $377 (-15%) | -$3,266 | -$3,471 | -$3,674 | -$3,715 |
| $399 (-10%) | -$2,525 | -$2,843 | -$3,245 | -$3,715 |
| $421 (-5%) | -$1,453 | -$1,824 | -$2,322 | -$3,606 |
| $434 (-2%) | -$654 | -$1,022 | -$1,505 | -$2,277 |
| $443 (0%) โ spot | -$61 | -$415 | -$861 | -$1,390 |
| $452 (+2%) | +$576 | +$244 | -$152 | -$503 |
| $465 (+5%) | +$1,604 | +$1,315 | +$1,005 | +$826 |
| $490 (+11%) โ target | +$3,689 | +$3,491 | +$3,328 | +$3,285 |
| $510 (+15%) | +$5,488 | +$5,355 | +$5,271 | +$5,259 |
| $532 (+20%) | +$7,591 | +$7,513 | +$7,477 | +$7,475 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.