Target Price Playground
VRTX
$436.27
๐ข
VRTX IV: 32.5% โ LOW
(-51.7% vs 30d avg of 67.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $500 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $435 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.24 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $435 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.39 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $500 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$1,538 (31.0%) on $4,962 risked, vs +$6,373 (14.6%) for 100 shares on $43,627. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $500. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $500 by Jun 19
+$1,538
+31.0% on $4,962 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$4,962
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$484.62
+11.08% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.9 / -36.77 / 147.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $349 (-20%) | +$3,616 | +$3,514 | +$3,522 | +$3,635 |
| $371 (-15%) | +$1,947 | +$1,628 | +$1,411 | +$1,454 |
| $393 (-10%) | +$716 | +$139 | -$453 | -$727 |
| $414 (-5%) | +$48 | -$743 | -$1,720 | -$2,909 |
| $428 (-2%) | -$56 | -$923 | -$2,041 | -$4,217 |
| $436 (0%) โ spot | -$1 | -$891 | -$2,048 | -$4,836 |
| $445 (+2%) | +$151 | -$743 | -$1,890 | -$3,963 |
| $458 (+5%) | +$547 | -$314 | -$1,373 | -$2,655 |
| $480 (+10%) | +$1,606 | +$869 | +$74 | -$473 |
| $500 (+15%) โ target | +$2,936 | +$2,346 | +$1,804 | +$1,537 |
| $524 (+20%) | +$4,799 | +$4,372 | +$4,047 | +$3,889 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.