Target Price Playground
VRTX
$436.27
๐ข
VRTX IV: 32.5% โ LOW
(-51.7% vs 30d avg of 67.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $470 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $436.27 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $470 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.7 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $470 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$4,543 (10.7%) on $42,457 risked, vs +$3,373 (7.7%) for 100 shares on $43,627. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $470. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $470 by Jun 19
+$4,543
+10.7% on $42,457 risked
Max Profit
+$4,543
If the stock โฅ $470 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$42,457
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$424.57
-2.68% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.78 / 16.8 / -68.69
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $349 (-20%) | -$7,601 | -$7,565 | -$7,555 | -$7,555 |
| $371 (-15%) | -$5,512 | -$5,418 | -$5,377 | -$5,374 |
| $393 (-10%) | -$3,536 | -$3,344 | -$3,215 | -$3,193 |
| $414 (-5%) | -$1,738 | -$1,420 | -$1,128 | -$1,011 |
| $428 (-2%) | -$771 | -$377 | +$38 | +$297 |
| $436 (0%) โ spot | -$180 | +$260 | +$757 | +$1,170 |
| $445 (+2%) | +$367 | +$847 | +$1,417 | +$2,043 |
| $458 (+5%) | +$1,099 | +$1,622 | +$2,274 | +$3,351 |
| $470 (+8%) โ target | +$1,677 | +$2,220 | +$2,907 | +$4,543 |
| $480 (+10%) | +$2,092 | +$2,638 | +$3,323 | +$4,543 |
| $502 (+15%) | +$2,820 | +$3,333 | +$3,933 | +$4,543 |
| $524 (+20%) | +$3,326 | +$3,770 | +$4,229 | +$4,543 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.