Target Price Playground
VRTX
$436.27
๐ข
VRTX IV: 32.5% โ LOW
(-51.7% vs 30d avg of 67.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $385 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $435 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.39 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $385 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$2,761 (123.3%) on $2,239 risked, vs $-5,127 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $43,627. Options give 10.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $385. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $385 by Jun 19
+$2,761
+123.3% on $2,239 risked
Max Profit
+$41,261
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$2,239
Premium paid
Break-even
$412.61
-5.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
41%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.05 / -15.73 / 73.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $349 (-20%) | +$6,170 | +$6,178 | +$6,241 | +$6,359 |
| $371 (-15%) | +$4,246 | +$4,144 | +$4,095 | +$4,178 |
| $385 (-12%) โ target | +$3,108 | +$2,923 | +$2,757 | +$2,761 |
| $393 (-10%) | +$2,540 | +$2,310 | +$2,072 | +$1,997 |
| $414 (-5%) | +$1,115 | +$778 | +$348 | -$185 |
| $428 (-2%) | +$409 | +$34 | -$467 | -$1,493 |
| $436 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$387 | -$907 | -$2,239 |
| $445 (+2%) | -$361 | -$749 | -$1,264 | -$2,239 |
| $458 (+5%) | -$817 | -$1,189 | -$1,660 | -$2,239 |
| $480 (+10%) | -$1,378 | -$1,689 | -$2,027 | -$2,239 |
| $502 (+15%) | -$1,741 | -$1,971 | -$2,174 | -$2,239 |
| $524 (+20%) | -$1,963 | -$2,118 | -$2,222 | -$2,239 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.