Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $395 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$2,960 (9.4%) on $-2,960 credit (max loss $31,540), vs +$2,089 (5.6%) for 100 shares on $37,411. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $395. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | May 10 | May 30 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $299 (-20%) | -$3,476 | -$2,928 | -$2,234 | -$1,611 |
| $318 (-15%) | -$2,403 | -$1,776 | -$928 | +$259 |
| $337 (-10%) | -$1,471 | -$793 | +$150 | +$2,130 |
| $355 (-5%) | -$674 | +$25 | +$996 | +$2,960 |
| $367 (-2%) | -$256 | +$444 | +$1,401 | +$2,960 |
| $374 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$694 | +$1,632 | +$2,960 |
| $382 (+2%) | +$237 | +$923 | +$1,834 | +$2,960 |
| $395 (+6%) โ target | +$622 | +$1,285 | +$2,132 | +$2,960 |
| $412 (+10%) | +$1,029 | +$1,653 | +$2,404 | +$2,960 |
| $430 (+15%) | +$1,413 | +$1,982 | +$2,615 | +$2,960 |
| $449 (+20%) | +$1,725 | +$2,233 | +$2,750 | +$2,960 |