Target Price Playground
WDC
$374.11
๐ข
WDC IV: 75.6% โ LOW
(-25.7% vs 30d avg of 101.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $405 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $374.11 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $405 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $34.56 ยท ฮ 0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $405 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$6,545 (19.3%) on $33,955 risked, vs +$3,089 (8.3%) for 100 shares on $37,411. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $405. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $405 by Jun 19
+$6,545
+19.3% on $33,955 risked
Max Profit
+$6,545
If the stock โฅ $405 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$33,955
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$339.55
-9.24% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
53.27 / 40.35 / -59.8
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | May 10 | May 30 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $299 (-20%) | -$4,968 | -$4,536 | -$4,144 | -$4,026 |
| $318 (-15%) | -$3,545 | -$2,996 | -$2,421 | -$2,156 |
| $337 (-10%) | -$2,240 | -$1,579 | -$810 | -$285 |
| $355 (-5%) | -$1,058 | -$301 | +$651 | +$1,585 |
| $367 (-2%) | -$409 | +$397 | +$1,444 | +$2,708 |
| $374 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$833 | +$1,934 | +$3,456 |
| $382 (+2%) | +$388 | +$1,246 | +$2,392 | +$4,204 |
| $393 (+5%) | +$936 | +$1,822 | +$3,020 | +$5,327 |
| $405 (+8%) โ target | +$1,484 | +$2,389 | +$3,620 | +$6,545 |
| $412 (+10%) | +$1,757 | +$2,669 | +$3,908 | +$6,545 |
| $430 (+15%) | +$2,471 | +$3,386 | +$4,610 | +$6,545 |
| $449 (+20%) | +$3,085 | +$3,983 | +$5,148 | +$6,545 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.