Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $385 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$3,030 (9.9%) on $-3,030 credit (max loss $30,470), vs +$1,878 (5.1%) for 100 shares on $36,622. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $385. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | May 6 | May 28 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $293 (-20%) | -$3,286 | -$2,698 | -$1,940 | -$1,172 |
| $311 (-15%) | -$2,276 | -$1,616 | -$718 | +$659 |
| $330 (-10%) | -$1,398 | -$692 | +$289 | +$2,490 |
| $348 (-5%) | -$643 | +$82 | +$1,083 | +$3,030 |
| $359 (-2%) | -$244 | +$480 | +$1,466 | +$3,030 |
| $366 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$719 | +$1,685 | +$3,030 |
| $374 (+2%) | +$228 | +$939 | +$1,879 | +$3,030 |
| $385 (+5%) โ target | +$555 | +$1,247 | +$2,134 | +$3,030 |
| $403 (+10%) | +$996 | +$1,648 | +$2,435 | +$3,030 |
| $421 (+15%) | +$1,373 | +$1,973 | +$2,647 | +$3,030 |
| $439 (+20%) | +$1,684 | +$2,228 | +$2,789 | +$3,030 |