Target Price Playground
WDC
$374.11
๐ข
WDC IV: 75.6% โ LOW
(-25.7% vs 30d avg of 101.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $430 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $375 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $46.36 ยท ฮ 0.57
LONG PUT ยท $375 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $44.53 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $430 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-3,589 (-39.5%) on $9,089 risked, vs +$5,589 (14.9%) for 100 shares on $37,411. Options give 2.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $430. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $430 by Jun 19
$-3,589
-39.5% on $9,089 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$9,089
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$284.11
-24.06% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
13.43 / -75.9 / 118.31
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | May 10 | May 30 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $299 (-20%) | +$1,053 | +$63 | -$1,009 | -$1,518 |
| $318 (-15%) | +$393 | -$812 | -$2,271 | -$3,388 |
| $337 (-10%) | -$1 | -$1,384 | -$3,186 | -$5,259 |
| $355 (-5%) | -$128 | -$1,641 | -$3,693 | -$7,129 |
| $367 (-2%) | -$81 | -$1,645 | -$3,791 | -$8,252 |
| $374 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$1,588 | -$3,771 | -$9,000 |
| $382 (+2%) | +$119 | -$1,483 | -$3,685 | -$8,430 |
| $393 (+5%) | +$368 | -$1,242 | -$3,436 | -$7,307 |
| $412 (+10%) | +$956 | -$631 | -$2,729 | -$5,437 |
| $430 (+15%) โ target | +$1,730 | +$205 | -$1,722 | -$3,589 |
| $449 (+20%) | +$2,700 | +$1,266 | -$440 | -$1,696 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.