Target Price Playground
WDC
$343.43
๐ข
WDC IV: 73.8% โ LOW
(-27.8% vs 30d avg of 102.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $370 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $343.43 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $370 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $37.99 ยท ฮ 0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $370 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$6,456 (21.1%) on $30,544 risked, vs +$2,657 (7.7%) for 100 shares on $34,343. Options give 2.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $370 by Jun 19
+$6,456
+21.1% on $30,544 risked
Max Profit
+$6,456
If the stock โฅ $370 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$30,544
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$305.44
-11.06% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
50.89 / 36.85 / -59.54
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $275 (-20%) | -$4,106 | -$3,645 | -$3,226 | -$3,070 |
| $292 (-15%) | -$2,839 | -$2,266 | -$1,677 | -$1,352 |
| $309 (-10%) | -$1,679 | -$1,003 | -$239 | +$365 |
| $326 (-5%) | -$629 | +$135 | +$1,059 | +$2,082 |
| $337 (-2%) | -$52 | +$756 | +$1,760 | +$3,112 |
| $343 (0%) โ spot | +$312 | +$1,145 | +$2,194 | +$3,799 |
| $350 (+2%) | +$659 | +$1,513 | +$2,600 | +$4,486 |
| $361 (+5%) | +$1,148 | +$2,027 | +$3,157 | +$5,516 |
| $370 (+8%) โ target | +$1,562 | +$2,458 | +$3,611 | +$6,456 |
| $378 (+10%) | +$1,883 | +$2,787 | +$3,948 | +$6,456 |
| $395 (+15%) | +$2,526 | +$3,432 | +$4,581 | +$6,456 |
| $412 (+20%) | +$3,084 | +$3,975 | +$5,072 | +$6,456 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.