Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WK hits $55 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$445 (10.2%) on $-445 credit (max loss $4,355), vs +$264 (5.0%) for 100 shares on $5,236. Options give 2.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WK is at $55. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42 (-20%) | -$471 | -$384 | -$278 | -$166 |
| $45 (-15%) | -$326 | -$229 | -$103 | +$96 |
| $47 (-10%) | -$201 | -$97 | +$41 | +$357 |
| $50 (-5%) | -$92 | +$15 | +$155 | +$445 |
| $51 (-2%) | -$35 | +$72 | +$211 | +$445 |
| $52 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$107 | +$243 | +$445 |
| $53 (+2%) | +$33 | +$138 | +$271 | +$445 |
| $55 (+5%) โ target | +$79 | +$182 | +$308 | +$445 |
| $58 (+10%) | +$144 | +$241 | +$353 | +$445 |
| $60 (+15%) | +$199 | +$289 | +$385 | +$445 |
| $63 (+20%) | +$244 | +$326 | +$407 | +$445 |