Target Price Playground
WMT
$126.77
๐ข
WMT IV: 29.1% โ LOW
(-34.9% vs 30d avg of 44.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $125 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.3 ยท ฮ 0.59
SHORT CALL ยท $135 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.89 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WMT hits $140 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$559 (126.8%) on $441 risked, vs +$1,323 (10.4%) for 100 shares on $12,677. Options give 12.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WMT is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WMT hits $140 by Jun 19
+$559
+126.8% on $441 risked
Max Profit
+$559
If the stock โฅ $135 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$441
Net debit
Break-even
$129.41
+2.08% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
26.07 / -0.76 / 1.33
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WMT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $101 (-20%) | -$416 | -$432 | -$440 | -$441 |
| $108 (-15%) | -$372 | -$405 | -$434 | -$441 |
| $114 (-10%) | -$290 | -$335 | -$397 | -$441 |
| $120 (-5%) | -$169 | -$209 | -$282 | -$441 |
| $124 (-2%) | -$82 | -$109 | -$164 | -$441 |
| $127 (0%) โ spot | -$21 | -$36 | -$69 | -$264 |
| $129 (+2%) | +$41 | +$38 | +$32 | -$10 |
| $133 (+5%) | +$131 | +$147 | +$181 | +$370 |
| $140 (+10%) โ target | +$276 | +$318 | +$392 | +$559 |
| $146 (+15%) | +$371 | +$419 | +$491 | +$559 |
| $152 (+20%) | +$446 | +$488 | +$537 | +$559 |
Uses WMT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.