Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WMT hits $135 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$200 (1.8%) on $-200 credit (max loss $11,300), vs +$823 (6.5%) for 100 shares on $12,677. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WMT is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WMT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $101 (-20%) | -$1,187 | -$1,159 | -$1,140 | -$1,158 |
| $108 (-15%) | -$722 | -$657 | -$581 | -$525 |
| $114 (-10%) | -$364 | -$279 | -$163 | +$109 |
| $120 (-5%) | -$118 | -$34 | +$72 | +$200 |
| $124 (-2%) | -$16 | +$57 | +$140 | +$200 |
| $127 (0%) โ spot | +$35 | +$100 | +$166 | +$200 |
| $129 (+2%) | +$76 | +$131 | +$182 | +$200 |
| $133 (+5%) | +$121 | +$162 | +$193 | +$200 |
| $135 (+6%) โ target | +$138 | +$172 | +$196 | +$200 |
| $139 (+10%) | +$165 | +$187 | +$199 | +$200 |
| $146 (+15%) | +$185 | +$196 | +$200 | +$200 |
| $152 (+20%) | +$194 | +$199 | +$200 | +$200 |