Target Price Playground
WMT
$126.77
๐ข
WMT IV: 29.1% โ LOW
(-34.9% vs 30d avg of 44.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $125 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.3 ยท ฮ 0.59
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WMT hits $140 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$770 (105.5%) on $730 risked, vs +$1,323 (10.4%) for 100 shares on $12,677. Options give 10.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WMT is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WMT hits $140 by Jun 19
+$770
+105.5% on $730 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$730
Premium paid
Break-even
$132.30
+4.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
58.91 / -4.96 / 21.09
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WMT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $101 (-20%) | -$699 | -$720 | -$729 | -$730 |
| $108 (-15%) | -$636 | -$687 | -$723 | -$730 |
| $114 (-10%) | -$507 | -$594 | -$683 | -$730 |
| $120 (-5%) | -$284 | -$402 | -$545 | -$730 |
| $124 (-2%) | -$101 | -$228 | -$388 | -$730 |
| $127 (0%) โ spot | +$42 | -$87 | -$248 | -$553 |
| $129 (+2%) | +$201 | +$74 | -$82 | -$299 |
| $133 (+5%) | +$466 | +$347 | +$211 | +$81 |
| $140 (+10%) โ target | +$1,015 | +$920 | +$828 | +$770 |
| $146 (+15%) | +$1,528 | +$1,453 | +$1,390 | +$1,349 |
| $152 (+20%) | +$2,121 | +$2,064 | +$2,018 | +$1,982 |
Uses WMT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.