Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WULF hits $20 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$216 (14.1%) on $-216 credit (max loss $1,534), vs +$113 (6.0%) for 100 shares on $1,887. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WULF is at $20. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WULF Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15 (-20%) | -$168 | -$129 | -$81 | -$24 |
| $16 (-15%) | -$119 | -$76 | -$20 | +$70 |
| $17 (-10%) | -$74 | -$29 | +$31 | +$164 |
| $18 (-5%) | -$35 | +$12 | +$75 | +$216 |
| $18 (-2%) | -$14 | +$34 | +$96 | +$216 |
| $19 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$47 | +$109 | +$216 |
| $19 (+2%) | +$12 | +$60 | +$121 | +$216 |
| $20 (+5%) | +$30 | +$77 | +$136 | +$216 |
| $20 (+6%) โ target | +$35 | +$82 | +$141 | +$216 |
| $21 (+10%) | +$56 | +$102 | +$157 | +$216 |
| $22 (+15%) | +$79 | +$122 | +$173 | +$216 |
| $23 (+20%) | +$98 | +$140 | +$185 | +$216 |