Target Price Playground
XOM
$152.51
๐ข
XOM IV: 30.6% โ LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 45.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.15 ยท ฮ -0.51
SHORT PUT ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.0 ยท ฮ -0.23
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If XOM hits $135 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$885 (143.9%) on $615 risked, vs $-1,751 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $15,251. Options give 12.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if XOM is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if XOM hits $135 by Jun 19
+$885
+143.9% on $615 risked
Max Profit
+$885
If the stock โค $140 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$615
Net debit
Break-even
$148.85
-2.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-27.74 / -0.94 / 4.95
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| XOM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $122 (-20%) | +$757 | +$812 | +$866 | +$885 |
| $130 (-15%) | +$625 | +$695 | +$795 | +$885 |
| $135 (-11%) โ target | +$495 | +$560 | +$671 | +$885 |
| $137 (-10%) | +$433 | +$491 | +$595 | +$885 |
| $145 (-5%) | +$207 | +$225 | +$260 | +$397 |
| $149 (-2%) | +$69 | +$58 | +$35 | -$61 |
| $153 (0%) โ spot | -$19 | -$48 | -$106 | -$366 |
| $156 (+2%) | -$103 | -$146 | -$232 | -$615 |
| $160 (+5%) | -$216 | -$275 | -$381 | -$615 |
| $168 (+10%) | -$367 | -$434 | -$530 | -$615 |
| $175 (+15%) | -$471 | -$528 | -$590 | -$615 |
| $183 (+20%) | -$537 | -$577 | -$609 | -$615 |
Uses XOM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.