Target Price Playground
XOM
$152.51
๐ข
XOM IV: 30.6% โ LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 45.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $170 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.53 ยท ฮ 0.49
SHORT CALL ยท $165 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.35 ยท ฮ 0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If XOM hits $170 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$682 (214.5%) on $318 risked, vs +$1,749 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $15,251. Options give 18.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if XOM is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if XOM hits $170 by Jun 19
+$682
+214.5% on $318 risked
Max Profit
+$682
If the stock โฅ $165 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$318
Net debit
Break-even
$158.18
+3.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
19.77 / -0.92 / 1.99
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| XOM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $122 (-20%) | -$299 | -$312 | -$318 | -$318 |
| $130 (-15%) | -$264 | -$292 | -$314 | -$318 |
| $137 (-10%) | -$198 | -$240 | -$293 | -$318 |
| $145 (-5%) | -$95 | -$140 | -$216 | -$318 |
| $149 (-2%) | -$19 | -$55 | -$126 | -$318 |
| $153 (0%) โ spot | +$36 | +$9 | -$48 | -$318 |
| $156 (+2%) | +$94 | +$77 | +$41 | -$262 |
| $160 (+5%) | +$180 | +$183 | +$186 | +$196 |
| $168 (+10%) | +$318 | +$348 | +$408 | +$682 |
| $170 (+11%) โ target | +$354 | +$391 | +$461 | +$682 |
| $175 (+15%) | +$434 | +$480 | +$559 | +$682 |
| $183 (+20%) | +$522 | +$570 | +$636 | +$682 |
Uses XOM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.