Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If XOM hits $160 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$300 (2.2%) on $-300 credit (max loss $13,700), vs +$749 (4.9%) for 100 shares on $15,251. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if XOM is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| XOM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $122 (-20%) | -$1,526 | -$1,493 | -$1,475 | -$1,499 |
| $130 (-15%) | -$951 | -$874 | -$787 | -$737 |
| $137 (-10%) | -$498 | -$391 | -$248 | +$26 |
| $145 (-5%) | -$172 | -$62 | +$82 | +$300 |
| $149 (-2%) | -$33 | +$68 | +$189 | +$300 |
| $153 (0%) โ spot | +$40 | +$131 | +$233 | +$300 |
| $156 (+2%) | +$99 | +$179 | +$261 | +$300 |
| $160 (+5%) โ target | +$165 | +$229 | +$283 | +$300 |
| $168 (+10%) | +$236 | +$274 | +$297 | +$300 |
| $175 (+15%) | +$271 | +$291 | +$300 | +$300 |
| $183 (+20%) | +$288 | +$297 | +$300 | +$300 |