Target Price Playground
XOM
$152.51
๐ข
XOM IV: 30.0% โ LOW
(-34.3% vs 30d avg of 45.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $165 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $152.51 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $165 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.35 ยท ฮ 0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If XOM hits $165 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,584 (10.6%) on $14,916 risked, vs +$1,249 (8.2%) for 100 shares on $15,251. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if XOM is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if XOM hits $165 by Jun 19
+$1,584
+10.6% on $14,916 risked
Max Profit
+$1,584
If the stock โฅ $165 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$14,916
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$149.16
-2.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
71.13 / 5.04 / -24.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| XOM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $122 (-20%) | -$2,723 | -$2,716 | -$2,715 | -$2,715 |
| $130 (-15%) | -$1,980 | -$1,960 | -$1,953 | -$1,953 |
| $137 (-10%) | -$1,269 | -$1,221 | -$1,193 | -$1,190 |
| $145 (-5%) | -$616 | -$526 | -$451 | -$428 |
| $149 (-2%) | -$261 | -$145 | -$29 | +$30 |
| $153 (0%) โ spot | -$45 | +$89 | +$234 | +$335 |
| $156 (+2%) | +$155 | +$304 | +$476 | +$640 |
| $160 (+5%) | +$423 | +$589 | +$794 | +$1,098 |
| $165 (+8%) โ target | +$663 | +$838 | +$1,060 | +$1,584 |
| $168 (+10%) | +$780 | +$956 | +$1,178 | +$1,584 |
| $175 (+15%) | +$1,035 | +$1,201 | +$1,392 | +$1,584 |
| $183 (+20%) | +$1,206 | +$1,346 | +$1,489 | +$1,584 |
Uses XOM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.