Target Price Playground
XOM
$152.51
๐ข
XOM IV: 30.0% โ LOW
(-34.3% vs 30d avg of 45.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $145 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $155 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.5 ยท ฮ -0.5
SHORT PUT ยท $145 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.69 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If XOM hits $145 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$529 (91.0%) on $581 risked, vs $-751 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $15,251. Options give 18.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if XOM is at $145. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if XOM hits $145 by Jun 19
+$529
+91.0% on $581 risked
Max Profit
+$517
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$580
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$153.19
+0.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-17.95 / 0.93 / 8.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| XOM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $122 (-20%) | +$340 | +$359 | +$370 | +$366 |
| $130 (-15%) | +$300 | +$336 | +$372 | +$374 |
| $137 (-10%) | +$226 | +$271 | +$338 | +$410 |
| $145 (-5%) โ target | +$116 | +$154 | +$220 | +$530 |
| $149 (-2%) | +$41 | +$67 | +$113 | +$217 |
| $153 (0%) โ spot | -$13 | +$3 | +$29 | +$37 |
| $156 (+2%) | -$68 | -$62 | -$58 | -$114 |
| $160 (+5%) | -$148 | -$158 | -$183 | -$290 |
| $168 (+10%) | -$271 | -$301 | -$355 | -$465 |
| $175 (+15%) | -$371 | -$409 | -$466 | -$542 |
| $183 (+20%) | -$446 | -$483 | -$528 | -$570 |
Uses XOM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.