Target Price Playground
XOM
$152.51
๐ข
XOM IV: 30.6% โ LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 45.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $170 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.53 ยท ฮ 0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If XOM hits $170 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$847 (129.7%) on $653 risked, vs +$1,749 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $15,251. Options give 11.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if XOM is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if XOM hits $170 by Jun 19
+$847
+129.7% on $653 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$653
Premium paid
Break-even
$161.53
+5.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
48.64 / -5.97 / 26.04
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| XOM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $122 (-20%) | -$626 | -$646 | -$653 | -$653 |
| $130 (-15%) | -$572 | -$620 | -$649 | -$653 |
| $137 (-10%) | -$454 | -$544 | -$625 | -$653 |
| $145 (-5%) | -$243 | -$377 | -$528 | -$653 |
| $149 (-2%) | -$62 | -$216 | -$402 | -$653 |
| $153 (0%) โ spot | +$81 | -$80 | -$282 | -$653 |
| $156 (+2%) | +$243 | +$78 | -$130 | -$597 |
| $160 (+5%) | +$521 | +$357 | +$155 | -$139 |
| $168 (+10%) | +$1,063 | +$916 | +$755 | +$623 |
| $170 (+11%) โ target | +$1,238 | +$1,100 | +$953 | +$847 |
| $175 (+15%) | +$1,686 | +$1,567 | +$1,455 | +$1,386 |
| $183 (+20%) | +$2,366 | +$2,274 | +$2,198 | +$2,148 |
Uses XOM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.