Target Price Playground
XOM
$152.51
๐ข
XOM IV: 30.0% โ LOW
(-34.3% vs 30d avg of 45.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.15 ยท ฮ -0.51
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If XOM hits $135 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,085 (118.6%) on $915 risked, vs $-1,751 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $15,251. Options give 10.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if XOM is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if XOM hits $135 by Jun 19
+$1,085
+118.6% on $915 risked
Max Profit
+$14,585
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$915
Premium paid
Break-even
$145.85
-4.37% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-51.16 / -5.49 / 25.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| XOM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $122 (-20%) | +$2,283 | +$2,305 | +$2,340 | +$2,384 |
| $130 (-15%) | +$1,576 | +$1,569 | +$1,582 | +$1,622 |
| $135 (-11%) โ target | +$1,113 | +$1,078 | +$1,058 | +$1,085 |
| $137 (-10%) | +$931 | +$882 | +$843 | +$859 |
| $145 (-5%) | +$380 | +$288 | +$179 | +$97 |
| $149 (-2%) | +$102 | -$9 | -$154 | -$361 |
| $153 (0%) โ spot | -$59 | -$179 | -$339 | -$666 |
| $156 (+2%) | -$202 | -$326 | -$492 | -$915 |
| $160 (+5%) | -$383 | -$505 | -$665 | -$915 |
| $168 (+10%) | -$603 | -$707 | -$827 | -$915 |
| $175 (+15%) | -$742 | -$819 | -$890 | -$915 |
| $183 (+20%) | -$824 | -$875 | -$909 | -$915 |
Uses XOM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.