Target Price Playground
XOM
$152.51
๐ข
XOM IV: 30.6% โ LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 45.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $170 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $152.51 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If XOM hits $170 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$1,749 (11.5%) on $15,251 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if XOM hits $170 by Jun 19
+$1,749
+11.5% on $15,251 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$15,251
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$152.51
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| XOM Price | Today | May 13 | Jun 12 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $122 (-20%) | -$3,050 | -$3,050 | -$3,050 |
| $130 (-15%) | -$2,288 | -$2,288 | -$2,288 |
| $137 (-10%) | -$1,525 | -$1,525 | -$1,525 |
| $145 (-5%) | -$763 | -$763 | -$763 |
| $149 (-2%) | -$305 | -$305 | -$305 |
| $153 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $156 (+2%) | +$305 | +$305 | +$305 |
| $160 (+5%) | +$763 | +$763 | +$763 |
| $168 (+10%) | +$1,525 | +$1,525 | +$1,525 |
| $170 (+11%) โ target | +$1,749 | +$1,749 | +$1,749 |
| $175 (+15%) | +$2,288 | +$2,288 | +$2,288 |
| $183 (+20%) | +$3,050 | +$3,050 | +$3,050 |
Uses XOM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.