Target Price Playground
XOM
$152.51
๐ข
XOM IV: 30.6% โ LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 45.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $170 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $152.51 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $145 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.69 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If XOM hits $170 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,280 (8.1%) on $15,720 risked, vs +$1,749 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $15,251. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if XOM is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if XOM hits $170 by Jun 19
+$1,280
+8.1% on $15,720 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,220
Put floors you at $145
Break-even
$157.20
+3.08% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.16 / -5.32 / 22.27
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| XOM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $122 (-20%) | -$1,255 | -$1,265 | -$1,257 | -$1,220 |
| $130 (-15%) | -$1,126 | -$1,179 | -$1,226 | -$1,220 |
| $137 (-10%) | -$892 | -$986 | -$1,103 | -$1,220 |
| $145 (-5%) | -$536 | -$652 | -$807 | -$1,220 |
| $149 (-2%) | -$264 | -$378 | -$529 | -$774 |
| $153 (0%) โ spot | -$59 | -$169 | -$308 | -$469 |
| $156 (+2%) | +$161 | +$59 | -$61 | -$164 |
| $160 (+5%) | +$519 | +$433 | +$342 | +$294 |
| $168 (+10%) | +$1,173 | +$1,114 | +$1,067 | +$1,056 |
| $170 (+11%) โ target | +$1,375 | +$1,324 | +$1,287 | +$1,280 |
| $175 (+15%) | +$1,876 | +$1,841 | +$1,821 | +$1,819 |
| $183 (+20%) | +$2,607 | +$2,589 | +$2,581 | +$2,581 |
Uses XOM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.