Target Price Playground
XOM
$152.51
๐ข
XOM IV: 30.6% โ LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 45.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $175 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.53 ยท ฮ 0.49
LONG PUT ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.15 ยท ฮ -0.51
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If XOM hits $175 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$432 (27.6%) on $1,568 risked, vs +$2,249 (14.7%) for 100 shares on $15,251. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if XOM is at $175. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if XOM hits $175 by Jun 19
+$432
+27.6% on $1,568 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$1,568
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$139.32
-8.65% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
26%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-2.52 / -11.46 / 52.02
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| XOM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $122 (-20%) | +$1,657 | +$1,660 | +$1,688 | +$1,731 |
| $130 (-15%) | +$1,004 | +$949 | +$933 | +$969 |
| $137 (-10%) | +$477 | +$337 | +$219 | +$206 |
| $145 (-5%) | +$137 | -$89 | -$349 | -$556 |
| $149 (-2%) | +$40 | -$225 | -$556 | -$1,014 |
| $153 (0%) โ spot | +$22 | -$259 | -$621 | -$1,319 |
| $156 (+2%) | +$41 | -$248 | -$623 | -$1,512 |
| $160 (+5%) | +$138 | -$148 | -$510 | -$1,054 |
| $168 (+10%) | +$460 | +$209 | -$72 | -$292 |
| $175 (+15%) โ target | +$916 | +$717 | +$530 | +$432 |
| $183 (+20%) | +$1,542 | +$1,400 | +$1,289 | +$1,233 |
Uses XOM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.