Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If YOU hits $50 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$294 (7.2%) on $-294 credit (max loss $4,106), vs +$208 (4.3%) for 100 shares on $4,792. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if YOU is at $50. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| YOU Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $38 (-20%) | -$450 | -$393 | -$326 | -$272 |
| $41 (-15%) | -$307 | -$239 | -$152 | -$33 |
| $43 (-10%) | -$185 | -$110 | -$12 | +$207 |
| $46 (-5%) | -$84 | -$7 | +$94 | +$294 |
| $47 (-2%) | -$31 | +$45 | +$143 | +$294 |
| $48 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$75 | +$170 | +$294 |
| $49 (+2%) | +$29 | +$102 | +$193 | +$294 |
| $50 (+4%) โ target | +$59 | +$130 | +$215 | +$294 |
| $53 (+10%) | +$121 | +$184 | +$252 | +$294 |
| $55 (+15%) | +$163 | +$218 | +$271 | +$294 |
| $58 (+20%) | +$195 | +$242 | +$282 | +$294 |