Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ZETA hits $16 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$123 (10.0%) on $-123 credit (max loss $1,227), vs +$89 (6.1%) for 100 shares on $1,461. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ZETA is at $16. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ZETA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12 (-20%) | -$135 | -$112 | -$85 | -$58 |
| $12 (-15%) | -$94 | -$68 | -$34 | +$15 |
| $13 (-10%) | -$58 | -$30 | +$7 | +$88 |
| $14 (-5%) | -$27 | +$2 | +$41 | +$123 |
| $14 (-2%) | -$10 | +$19 | +$57 | +$123 |
| $15 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$29 | +$66 | +$123 |
| $15 (+2%) | +$9 | +$38 | +$74 | +$123 |
| $15 (+5%) | +$22 | +$50 | +$85 | +$123 |
| $16 (+6%) โ target | +$27 | +$54 | +$88 | +$123 |
| $16 (+10%) | +$41 | +$67 | +$98 | +$123 |
| $17 (+15%) | +$56 | +$80 | +$107 | +$123 |
| $18 (+20%) | +$69 | +$91 | +$113 | +$123 |