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ESTC Covered Call Analysis: Proceed With Caution Weak · 30/100
ESTC · $43.30 ·
Analysis generated Apr 10, 2026 ·
Data as of market close Apr 10
· Market closed — data may be from last trading day
This strategy is NOT recommended for ESTC right now
Score 30/100. The technical signals do not support selling covered calls on ESTC at this time.
RSI at 27 — oversold, not ideal for selling calls. IV -18% vs avg — premiums below average, less income. MACD bearish — stock may keep falling (risk).
Check back when conditions improve, or consider a different strategy.
Quick Take
ESTC is trading at $43.30 with RSI at 27 (oversold territory). Options IV is at 61% — 18% below its 30-day average of 75%. Neither RSI nor IV strongly favor selling calls right now. Consider waiting for better conditions or using a different strategy.
Technical Signals
RSI (14)
27
IV Today
61.4%
IV vs 30d Avg
-18%
MACD
bearish
ADX
27
MFI
30
The Setup
ESTC Covered Call
LONG STOCK
100 shares @ $43.3
SHORT CALL
$47 Jun '26 · $3.68/sh
Net Cost
$3,962
Max Profit
+$738
Break-even
$39.62
Projected P&L at Target
+$738
(18.6%)
P&L at Expiry
P&L Scenarios
What happens at different ESTC prices by expiry:
| ESTC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $35 (-20%) | -$589 | -$545 | -$508 | -$498 |
| $37 (-15%) | -$421 | -$362 | -$306 | -$282 |
| $39 (-10%) | -$265 | -$193 | -$116 | -$65 |
| $41 (-5%) | -$125 | -$41 | +$57 | +$151 |
| $42 (-2%) | -$48 | +$42 | +$151 | +$281 |
| $43 (0%) ← now | +$0 | +$94 | +$209 | +$368 |
| $44 (+2%) | +$46 | +$143 | +$264 | +$455 |
| $45 (+5%) | +$110 | +$210 | +$338 | +$584 |
| $47 (+9%) ← target | +$180 | +$283 | +$414 | +$738 |
| $48 (+10%) | +$207 | +$310 | +$442 | +$738 |
| $50 (+15%) | +$290 | +$393 | +$524 | +$738 |
| $52 (+20%) | +$361 | +$462 | +$586 | +$738 |
Why This Strategy, Why Now
- RSI at 27 — oversold, not ideal for selling calls
- IV -18% vs avg — premiums below average, less income
- MACD bearish — stock may keep falling (risk)
- ADX at 27 — moderate trend
- No squeeze — no imminent breakout
Key Risks
ADX at 27 indicates a moderately strong trend. In trending markets, covered calls cap your upside too early. Use a higher strike to leave more room.