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ORCL Covered Call Analysis: Proceed With Caution Weak · 35/100
ORCL · $138.09 ·
Analysis generated Apr 13, 2026 ·
Data as of market close Apr 13
This strategy is NOT recommended for ORCL right now
Score 35/100. The technical signals do not support selling covered calls on ORCL at this time.
RSI at 40 — oversold, not ideal for selling calls. IV -23% vs avg — premiums below average, less income. MACD bearish — stock may keep falling (risk).
Check back when conditions improve, or consider a different strategy.
Quick Take
ORCL is trading at $138.09 with RSI at 40 (oversold territory). Options IV is at 52% — 23% below its 30-day average of 68%. Neither RSI nor IV strongly favor selling calls right now. Consider waiting for better conditions or using a different strategy.
Technical Signals
RSI (14)
40
IV Today
52.5%
IV vs 30d Avg
-23%
MACD
bearish
ADX
12
MFI
36
The Setup
ORCL Covered Call
LONG STOCK
100 shares @ $138.09
SHORT CALL
$150 Jun '26 · $9.45/sh
Net Cost
$12,864
Max Profit
+$2,136
Break-even
$128.64
Projected P&L at Target
+$2,136
(16.6%)
P&L at Expiry
P&L Scenarios
What happens at different ORCL prices by expiry:
| ORCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $110 (-20%) | -$1,968 | -$1,883 | -$1,826 | -$1,817 |
| $117 (-15%) | -$1,386 | -$1,260 | -$1,156 | -$1,126 |
| $124 (-10%) | -$851 | -$682 | -$516 | -$436 |
| $131 (-5%) | -$367 | -$159 | +$75 | +$255 |
| $135 (-2%) | -$104 | +$125 | +$397 | +$669 |
| $138 (0%) ← now | +$60 | +$301 | +$595 | +$945 |
| $141 (+2%) | +$214 | +$466 | +$779 | +$1,221 |
| $145 (+5%) | +$430 | +$694 | +$1,028 | +$1,635 |
| $150 (+9%) ← target | +$664 | +$936 | +$1,285 | +$2,136 |
| $152 (+10%) | +$745 | +$1,019 | +$1,370 | +$2,136 |
| $159 (+15%) | +$1,009 | +$1,282 | +$1,623 | +$2,136 |
| $166 (+20%) | +$1,226 | +$1,488 | +$1,801 | +$2,136 |
Why This Strategy, Why Now
- RSI at 40 — oversold, not ideal for selling calls
- IV -23% vs avg — premiums below average, less income
- MACD bearish — stock may keep falling (risk)
- ADX at 12 — range-bound, perfect for selling calls
- No squeeze — no imminent breakout
Key Risks
The main risk is missing upside if ORCL rallies sharply. The premium received ($X per share) provides a buffer, but gains above the strike are forfeited.